Glaciers and National Security, How Much Oil, Fighting Natural Hazards and
Terrorism . . .
USGS Presents a World of Science at AGU
Note to Editors: Interviews with the scientists during the American
Geophysical Union (AGU) conference can be arranged by contacting Diane
Noserale in the AGU newsroom, phone: 202-371-5016.
Is the World Running Out of Oil?: Where will future oil and gas supplies
come from? Of the oil and gas endowment of about 5.6 trillion barrels of
oil, USGS estimates that the world has consumed about 18 percent, leaving
about 82 percent to be used or found. USGS scientist Thomas Ahlbrandt will
discuss frontiers in fossil fuel exploration, nonconventional oil and gas,
alternatives to oil and gas, and time frames for potential shortfalls.
"Future Oil and Gas Resources of the World: A Coming Supply Crisis?," in
Session U32A, is scheduled for 1:50 pm on Wednesday, May 29, Washington
Convention Center Room 30. Please note: A news conference on this session
is scheduled for 9:00 am on Wednesday, May 29 in the Press Briefing Room,
Washington Convention Center Room 1. Digital products from the World
Energy Project may be downloaded at:
http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/WEnergy.html
Vanishing Glaciers -- New Alliances or More Conflict in Central Asia?:
Throughout the world, glaciers are shrinking. Some of the fastest retreat
is in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region, where scientists expect that
more than 15,000 square miles of glaciers will disappear during the 21st
century, particularly in major valleys and low mountain passes. Glaciers
supply much of the fresh water and hydroelectric power in South and Central
Asia. Will shared economic interests in water, hydroelectricity, and the
mitigation of flood hazards improve relations among Central and South Asian
nations? Will the disappearance of this natural barrier open new corridors
for trade and cultural exchange and forge new economic, military and
political alliances in the region, or will it simply open transit routes
for militants and for military offensive action? Will terrorists find it
harder to hide but easier to move? Glaciers are relevant to the conflict
in Kashmir, to security in Afghanistan, and to the current insurgency in
Nepal. USGS scientist Jeffrey Kargel will discuss a joint USGS/NASA
Pathfinder project and its global consortium of glaciologists who are using
satellite remote sensing to map and monitor the HKH glaciers and other
glaciers throughout the world. "Glaciers in 21st Century Himalayan
Geopolitics," in Session U22A, is scheduled for 3:25 pm on Tuesday, May
28, Washington Convention Center Room 30. Please note: A news conference
on this session is scheduled for 9:00 am on Tuesday, May 28 in the Press
Briefing Room, Washington Convention Center Room 1. For more on the Global
Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS), please see:
http://wwwflag.wr.usgs.gov/GLIMS/
More on Vanishing Glaciers: As glaciers retreat, new land uses become
possible: Transportation corridors may open; previously inaccessible
energy and mineral resources may become available; new wildlife habitat and
migration routes may develop, and for a time, more fresh water and
hydropower will be available. In Alaska, more than 7,700 square miles of
land are expected to emerge from beneath ice over the next century,
producing a potential economic windfall estimated at $360 million per year.
In western China, the economic development and well-being of the populace
is partly dependent on melting glaciers. In India, melting glaciers and
snowfields account for about $4 billion per year of hydroelectric power (at
$0.03/kW-hr), more than $400 million of which results from the net loss of
glacial mass that the region is currently experiencing. What about the
future? The rapid retreat of Hindu Kush-Himalaya glaciers will eventually
result in more water shortages in a region where clean water already is in
short supply. And because many glaciers store large amounts of meltwater
and release it suddenly, lives downstream will be lost. Rising sea level
could displace many and destroy property in coastal areas throughout the
world. The net loss or benefit of receding glaciers has not been
calculated, but the effect is apt to be sharply negative. USGS scientist
Jeffrey Kargel will discuss these issues. "A World of Changing Glaciers:
Hazards, Opportunities, and Measures of Global Climate Change," in Session
U31A, is scheduled for 9:45 am on Wednesday, May 29, Washington Convention
Center Room 30. Please note: A news conference on this session is
scheduled for 9:00 am on Tuesday, May 28 in the Press Briefing Room,
Washington Convention Center Room 1. For more on the Global Land Ice
Measurements from Space (GLIMS), please see:
http://wwwflag.wr.usgs.gov/GLIMS/
Measuring Subtle Changes from Space to Understand Earthquakes: To resolve
major questions about earthquakes and continental tectonics, researchers
need increasingly accurate and detailed measurements of the ground surface,
and of how it deforms on time scales of seconds to tens of thousands of
years. EarthScope is a multi-agency initiative that scientists are
proposing to better understand the Earth by gathering GPS and a variety of
remote sensing imagery, including satellite and airborne radar and laser
ranging that can measure ground movement on the order of fractions of an
inch. USGS scientist Ken Hudnut will describe EarthScope's potential to
use current technologies to open a new era in our understanding of how
fault systems behave. "Merging Geodesy and Geomorphology for
Seismotectonics," in Session G32A, is scheduled for 3:35 pm on Wednesday,
May 29, Washington Convention Center Room 29. Please note: A news
conference on this session is scheduled for 11:00 am on Wednesday, May 29
in the Press Briefing Room, Washington Convention Center
Room 1.
While You're At It, Point That Satellite Here: Studies of ancient
movements of faults on the Caribbean islands of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,
and Trinidad indicate a significant earthquake hazard on each island. In
Hispaniola, the major North American-Caribbean plate-boundary fault
traverses a densely populated and rapidly developing area that apparently
accommodates about half of the total plate-boundary motion of approximately
3/4 inch per year. Studies of the recurrence interval suggest that a
significant earthquake could be due for this area. In Puerto Rico,
repeated surface rupture occurred on a previously unrecognized fault in the
Lajas Valley during the past 7,500 years. Trinidad is located along the
South American-Caribbean plate boundary. Data from the GPS satellite
system suggests that the Central Range Fault in central Trinidad
accommodates a significant part of the total plate-boundary motion and
geologic studies show that surface rupture has occurred within the past
4500 years on this previously unrecognized, active fault. USGS scientist
Carol Prentice will present "Paleoseismology in the Caribbean: A Review of
Studies in Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and Trinidad," in Session T31A,
scheduled for 8:30 am on Wednesday, May 29, Washington Convention Center
Room 29.
Lidar's Many Uses: Over the past three years, USGS, NASA and local
scientists have been using the Puget Sound area as a testing ground of the
potential to apply a recently developed technology called Lidar (Light
Detection and Ranging) to address a variety of research questions. Lidar
allows scientists to quickly and accurately map topography over a large
area with an airborne laser beam. Scientists can then determine origins
and relative ages to topographic features. USGS scientist Ralph Haugerud
will describe applications that include identifying fault features in
earthquake hazard studies, mapping deep-seated landslides, determining
ice-flow direction during glacial melting, mapping habitats, and planning
development. "Lidar Surveys for Earth Sciences Investigations in Western
Washington," in Session G32A, is scheduled for 3:55 pm on Wednesday, May
29, Washington Convention Center Room 29. Please note: A news conference
on this session is scheduled for 11:00 am on Wednesday, May 29 in the Press
Briefing Room, Washington Convention Center Room 1.
Using Satellites to Uncover Mt. Rainier's Past: Debris flows are perhaps
the most troublesome hazard posed by Mt. Rainier. USGS scientist Bernard
Hubbard will discuss two new space-borne instruments: ASTER (Advanced
Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) and SRTM (Shuttle
Radar Topography Mission) that could be useful for estimating inundation
levels of past debris-flows preserved along river valleys draining Mount
Rainier. "Paleohydrologic Analysis of Debris-Flow Inundation at Mount
Rainier, Washington Using ASTER and SRTM Derived Topography," poster in
Session V21B, is scheduled to begin at 8:30 am on Tuesday, May 28,
Washington Convention Center Hall D. Presenters will be available for 1
hour between 9-11:00 am for morning poster sessions.
Fighting Terrorists with Science: The terrorist bombing of the Alfred P.
Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, on April 19, 1995, was
recorded on two permanent seismographs, about 4 and 16 miles away. The more
distant seismograph recorded two low-frequency wave trains, which militia
groups speculated were caused by separate explosions and hinted at a
government cover up. USGS scientist Thomas Holzer will describe how USGS
monitoring of the demolition of the damaged building on May 23, 1995,
provided a timely resolution of the ambiguity of the seismogram and
publication of results discouraged a conspiracy defense by the terrorists.
"Forensic Seismology and the 1995 Oklahoma City Terrorist Bombing," in
Session U22A, is scheduled for 2:40 pm on Tuesday, May 28, Washington
Convention Center Room 30. Please note: A news conference on this session
is scheduled for 9:00 am on Tuesday, May 28 in the Press Briefing Room,
Washington Convention Center Room 1.
What Will a Restored Everglades Look Like?: Scientists have recovered
2,000 years of plant history in pollen-bearing sediment cores from the
Florida Everglades. These records are helping scientists to determine how
the Everglades might respond to restoration of the natural water flow that
existed before the 1930s. USGS scientist Debra Willard will discuss
human-induced changes to plant communities in the Everglades, with a look
to the future. "Everglades Plant Community Response to 20th Century
Hydrologic Changes," in Session H41B, is scheduled for 9:00 am on Thursday,
May 30, Washington Convention Center Room 29.
Runoff, Fallout, and Bad Fish in the Everglades: Some of the highest
concentrations of methylmercury known have been found in freshwater fish
from the Everglades. Methylmercury is a potent toxin in humans that
attacks the nervous system, and is a particular threat to unborn children.
It accumulates up the food chain, in people through consumption of fish.
USGS scientist William Orem will discuss the role of sulfur in
methylmercury production, and present evidence indicating that atmospheric
fallout of mercury and contamination of the Everglades by sulfate from
agricultural runoff produces the severe methylmercury problem in the
Everglades. "Sulfur, a Key Water Quality Issue in the Everglades," in
Session H41B, is scheduled for 8:00 am on Thursday, May 30, Washington
Convention Center Room 29. Note: This is a change from the meeting
program.
Are Docks and Traffic Polluting Suburban Washington, D.C. Lake?: Sediment
cores, collected from Lake Anne in Reston, Virginia show increasing
concentrations of arsenic and copper since 1964, when the lake was formed.
USGS scientist Karen Rice will present evidence that in-lake leaching of
pressure-treated lumber accounts for more than half of the arsenic
concentration and road runoff was the primary source of the copper.
"Anthropogenic Sources of Arsenic and Copper to Sediments of a Suburban
Lake, 1964-1998," in Session B52B, is scheduled for 3:15 pm on Friday, May
31, Washington Convention Center Room 25.
Slow Progress in Reducing Contaminants to Chesapeake Bay: The majority of
rivers entering the Chesapeake Bay show no significant decrease since the
mid-1980s in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, in spite of efforts to reduce
nutrient sources. The factors contributing to the slow water-quality
improvement include stream flow variability, watershed characteristics, and
the influence of ground water on nitrogen transport. USGS scientist Scott
Phillips will discuss the implications of the slow water-quality response
in regard to removing the Chesapeake Bay from the "impaired water" list
under the Clean Water Act. "The Relation Between Nutrient Trends in Rivers
and Management Actions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed," in Session H51E,
is scheduled for 11:05 am on Friday, May 31, Washington Convention Center
Room 28.
Earlier Spring Comes to Maine: Long-term hydrologic records of Maine's
lakes and rivers show significantly earlier spring warming in recent
decades. USGS scientist Thomas Huntington will report that lakes and
rivers in Maine became ice-free at earlier dates during the 20th century.
Spring river discharge measurements indicate that snowmelt has also
advanced during the past 100 years. River ice thickness, water
temperature, and snow/water equivalent data are also consistent with an
earlier spring warming. "Long-term Hydrologic Time Series in Maine,"
poster in Session H51A, is scheduled to begin at 8:30 am on Friday, May 31,
Washington Convention Center Hall D. Presenters will be available for 1
hour between 9-11:00 am for morning poster sessions.
Climate Change Could Accelerate Calcium Depletion in Maine's Forests:
Field studies suggest that calcium levels of Maine's forests are likely
declining and will decrease faster in the future if forest growth rates
increase. Climate warming, a longer growing season, more atmospheric
carbon dioxide, and recovery from insect-induced mortality and excessive
harvesting in recent years are among the current conditions that scientists
expect will promote faster forest growth and calcium depletion. Trees
require calcium, so its depletion can affect forest growth and vigor,
resistance to disease and insect pressures, and could lead to changes in
forest species composition. Calcium depletion can also cause acidification
of surface waters and therefore adverse effects on sensitive aquatic biota.
Maine's forests are probably at lower risk of calcium depletion than many
forests in the central and southeast US because growth rates are relatively
slow and acidic deposition is lower in Maine; however, climatic and other
trends, including likely changes in species composition could accelerate
calcium depletion. USGS scientist Thomas Huntington will present
"Potential Effects of Climate Change on Calcium Status of Maine Forests,"
poster in Session B31A, scheduled to begin at 8:30 am on Wednesday, May 29,
Washington Convention Center Hall D. Presenters will be available for 1
hour between 9-11:00 am for morning poster sessions.
When Natural Cleanup is Best: Long-term observations of a crude-oil spill
near Bemidji, Minnesota are helping scientists learn when the best way to
clean up contamination is to let nature do it. Research under the USGS
Toxic Substances Hydrology Program is showing that, even under
"unfavorable" conditions, natural processes can mitigate significant
amounts of hydrocarbon contamination. USGS scientist Isabelle Cozzarelli
will discuss the dynamic conditions at the Bemidji site, how they affect
contaminant migration and cleanup, and the importance of long-term
monitoring where natural cleanup appears to be the best choice. "Developing
Conceptual Models of Biodegradation: Lessons Learned From a Long-Term Study
of a Crude-Oil Contaminant Plume," in Session H22D, is scheduled for 2:15
pm on Tuesday, May 28, Washington Convention Center Room 31.
The USGS serves the nation by providing reliable scientific information to:
describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from
natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources;
and enhance and protect our quality of life.