Hi all Thunderstorms have broken out in several places around Canterbury, and about half an hour ago at 5.30PM local time one was in progress to the southwest of our place. At this stage the storm is still young and weak but several faint peals of thunder have been heard from time to time. Rob

No wonder I looked in vain for you online. Please be careful, Rob! Your weather map does not look promising for the immediate future!

Hi all I was probably out doing a spot of shopping before the storms which I knew were coming, began to form. Today more thunderstorms are forecast for the West Coast, and whilst Sunday is further out, there is a long range forecast for thunderstorms on Sunday here. Oh well. Rob

*Sigh* If you are going to get rain, it might as well be exciting. Unplug your world so you can be back online when the clouds clear. I'll be watching the webcams.

Hi all We have just emerged from a 1 hour thunderstorm with a brief heavy down pour and quite a lot of lightning and thunder. It was the second of two storms I witnessed first hand today and the final of five storms visible from our place. The storms all formed to the south west of Christchurch and tracked NE across the city bringing moderate rain and steady thunder and lightning. In other news today, torrential rain in Manawatu caused localised flooding and the closure of State Highway 1. Rob

Rob, could you tell me the website URL for a good Christchurch weather forecast so I can post yours also? I have little success with the ones which appear in the search engines and the MetService seems not to want me to look at theirs. Thanks! I did not wish to ignore your dilemma. Now, go unplug again tonight - just to be safe. I'll try to get online to talk to you tomorrow - fumes permitting!

Hi all Okay, we will put it in weather though because it will detract further from the Hydro Hazards subject, though the rain radar which we used to monitor the progress of the thunderstorms was quite hand WHEN it was updated. Rob

Hmmm... perhaps you might find a forecast for weather (geo 14) which was what I was looking for, then post what actually happened here?! If we have to make a choice, I'd rather you keep your weather and associated effects here! I agree with you!

Hi all Another day, another storm. Todays itinerary consisted of a thunderstorm at 1.PM with heavy rain, very good pyrotechnics and sound effects, followed about 3 hours later by the mother of all downpours, with very little lightning and thunder. Mum and Dad went walking up the Port Hills about 7.30AM and there was not a cloud in sight, but as they were coming down the first cumulus clouds were forming and by midday the whole southwestern horizon was dotted with growing thunderstorm cells. The lightning started the display with air to ground strikes and cloud to cloud bolts followed shortly afterwards. At times one peal of thunder had hardly finished when the next flash was seen. Heavy rain set in and sent everyone outside running. As it cleared out the roads and footpaths were steaming and the gutters were choked with debris. For about 2 hours there was relative calm - until I went up for my lunch break and spotted a huge slowly rotating cloud slowly drifting our way. It had a gust front for a time but as with the previous storm this one was almost windless. This is the third consecutive of thunderstorms here and it is still possible that another one will come tomorrow. Rob

That rotating wall sounds ominous. How many tornadoes go you get there? I never thought of islands getting anything more than an errant waterspout which wandered onto dry land. It is the only kind we get in Hawaii, and even they are rare. So rare, in fact, that I have only looked up into one which never touched down. I was impressed, felt great dread, and was happy we only have to worry about an active volcano and earthquakes.

Hi all Here is a report from the Press, that appeared at Stuff.co.nz on the thunderstorms and other dramatic weather that we have been having around Canterbury: http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1055542a1561,FF.html Rob

Hi all For three days and nights now, the West Coast has been carpeted bombed by torrential rain and further heavy rain is forecast: For the article go here: http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1057839a1806,FF.html To see how much rain is falling go here and follow the simple directions: http://www.ecan.govt.nz - web page of Environment Canterbury, governing body of Canterbury Go to RIVER FLOWS - go to table view for both North and South Canterbury. NOTE 1 inch is 25 millimetres. To see a big braided river flood, go to NIWA cam-era Waimakariri (DOWN PAGE. If the river is clear, the milky water indicates deeper channels, light brown indicates sediment islands, and dark blue indicates shallow water. If it is dirty and running high then most of the river will be a uniform brown).

I was hoping that large front headed your way would go north of you. However I caught your weather report on International CNN and saw the bad news. How fortnate that you managed to have your family camping during one of the rare breaks in the steady routine of storms. I think your drought is history. If you are like us, it will continue far past enough to keep us in bath and potable water! I have another rare clear evening. I will look for Quadrantid meteors and satellites. Happy me!

Hi all A thunderstorm pounded the West Coast last night and the lightning had to be seen to be believed. Fork lightning and sheet lightning lit the skies above Westport with an unbelievable display as a dozen Westport properties were flooded in a deluge lasting an hour. Thunder clapped rolled and rumbled like the gods clapping and stamping simultaneously while Coasters watched on in utter amazement: http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1058580a11,FF.html Rob

Hi all Flood warnings: Surprise surprise. http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1058859a1806,FF.html Rob

Rob, Dear, yours are like ours. Several; days after people have moved out of flooded homes andbarricades are all over the flooded roadways, they finally send out flood warnings. By then it has subsided so weare told they are cancelled. As soon as they cancel them, we KNOW you are really going to get it!!! Our otherwise cautionary and very good civil defense people always seems to miss the rainstorms! Sheeet lightning I have also experienced. It's blinding! Coasters drying out after deluge 03 January 2002 An electrical storm that struck Westport and Buller overnight caused widespread flooding and came as heavy rainfall throughout the area forced the closure of one of the main routes between Canterbury and the West Coast. Forked and sheet lightning flashed continually for over an hour as torrential rain flooded about a dozen properties in Westport. Several homes and businesses spent today cleaning up. Westport fire chief, and Buller mayor, Pat O'Dea said he had never seen rain like it. He said the fire service received at least 12 phone calls to deal with surface flooding but there was nothing it could do. more... http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1058580a11,FF.html

* Here Comes the Rain References 1. http://www.sciquest.com/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/ExecMacro/sci_level3.d2w/report?nav_banner=bio&resource=articles&gateway=S-hydrol

The latest HazardWatch is now online: http://www.hazardwatch.co.nz

Hi all Another day another storm. This from The Press newspaper about yesterday's thunderstorm. http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1059928a1934,FF.html Rob

Have you ever tried taking a time exposure to catch some ground strokes? It is another excuse for you to play in the rain if your mother worries. Anything for science! Please be careful, though. I will worry, also. Keep your feet dry!

I just read the little weather forecast that I could fine. You will be getting more rain and cold weather with it. Stay warm and dry while you're taking those photos. It sounds rather miserable!

Hi all On Saturday the skies began darken ominously at about 10.30AM. Around 11.AM the forming storm was starting to form a ragged front and soon something of a gust front was visible along the leading edge of the storm which marked an approaching southerly. Huge black clouds were rising steadily and thunder rumbled in the distance. By midday the clouds had assumed a charcoal black possibly because of the sunlight as much as the huge rain making factory it was becoming. Cloud to cloud lightning occasionally lit up the sky and made for some impressive peals of thunder. It struck just after Midday and with an intensity rarely seen in Canterbury. Little lightning and thunder after the rain started but a super heavy wind driven deluge of remarkable ferocity sent people people running for cover. The rain had a few pieces of hail mixed but it was EASILY the big player. It came down so hard and so fast that another 5 minutes of that intensity would have flooded the drain running through our neighbours place. As it was it almost could not contain the 10 minute downpour anyway. At Pak'N'Save the foyer was crowded with people waiting the rain out and no one came in or left. All those working outside went upstairs for a drink well we waited. In the central city it was MUCH worse, and to find out how bad, go here: http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1061090a11,FF.html Rob

Good Grief, Rob! Next thing you need is a little digital camera to snap storms. I got a bunch of snow pictures from the snow storm that hit the east coast over the weekend. Beautiful but treacherous! But, nothing like hailstones you had several inches deep! We have only had hail once in Hilo since I got here. Very tiny bouncy granules of ice. Thanks for that url. Shovelling hail! I'm glad they got you to a high and dry place. I think that would have sounded incredibly loud on a metal roof!

Hi all In just four months Lake Tekapo and most over high country storage lakes have gone from half empty to 100% full.Lake Tekapo is spilling water in large volumes because further rain is expected and the lake is full to capacity. http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1063305a1934,FF.html Rob

do they not have levees and stuff? no where to direct the extra water?

Levees and earthen dams have had a terrible record for breaching and killing all below. I wonder if it is possible to divert extra rainfall in such large amounts! Rob, go ask your dad!

lots of barrels then! *laugh*

A bucket brigade of Brobdingnagian proportions, no doubt. Trouble is, I wonder who is evaporating sea water faster or haviong a huge drought. The water comes from one source - HERE!

Hi all The water pours down the Tekapo River and into Lake Benmore or enters the intake and sent by tunnel to drive Tekapo A and B powerstations. From there it has two options, down the Pukaki and Ohau Canals through 3 more power stations before entering Lake Benmore, or down the Pukaki which still ends up in Lake Benmore. At Lake Benmore a 540 megawatt power station is the first of 3 on the Waitaki before the water enters the Pacific Ocean. The Waitaki dams and the hydro storage lakes are all operating under resource consents with set limits on how high the lakes can get before they MUST spill water. Don't worry, it is just to ease the pressure on the lakes, and not because the dams cannot hack anymore. The lakes could fill further, but in Tekapo's case there is a town of several hundred people and tourists on the foreshore. Therefore not spilling would be very dumb. Rob

Dumb and tempting fate, it would seem. Not good advertising to wash tourists into the sea! That sort of thing tends to get around. I'm happy you are using it to replace fossil fuel for electricity generation. I wish we did more of it. Oh well, you are cold and wet, but well. That is good news, indeed!

Hi all And the rain keeps tumbling down. We have had a low pressure system in the Tasman Sea spawning northeasterly rain last night with a bad thunderstorm in Wellington, and now the persistent rain has come to unload in Canterbury where we have had twice the monthly rainfall since the start of the month. Canterbury just 4 months ago was looking at the prospect of another long dry summer with little visible relief in sight but now the biggest problems for many are "Rain, rain go away, come back another day". The hydro lakes as I showed are full to overflowing and as was shown in the news article I posted, the Tekapo spillway is open. I hear more cloudy days and northeasterlies are on their way for much of summer occasionally interspersed with northwesterlies. I hope the rain holds of because farmers cannot make hay while the grass is wet and they need northwesterlies or at least some sunshine to do that. Rob

Hi all again Wellington's turn for the thunderstorm treatment: http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1065869a11,FF.html Rob

Amazing the amount of water that can come from fluffy clouds! Landslides and all - your weather looks much like ours in the really wet times (they are not consistent as to when they happen in Hawaii.) I think the weather knew about your hosting the New Zealand Open Golf Tournament and let open the floodgates. I am watching live play as I write this! Rob, this is off-topic and really none of my business, but I was concerned about reading of the Christchurch Hospital closing. Will this affect your mother? (More than one of Geo's best has a Nurse for a mother!)

Hi all Marcia, although it is off topic, I appreciate the concern you show about the hospitals but no it does not. Mum works at a medical centre (medical centres are for check ups, minor surgery and light weight procedures). The situation is crap and the Health Minister refuses to get involved even though every nurse at a HOSPITAL in Canterbury is involved in the strike that is looming. Hillmorton Hospital is NOT the main hospital but a specialist one for patients with some mental disorders. This is really bad and no one is looking forward to the strike, but the nurses who have my sympathy are over worked, under staffed and under paid. And the minister is not interested. But back to topic. Bad news, really bad news: 150mm (6 inches)of rain is forecast for the foothills of Canterbury and Kaikoura and heavy rain is already falling on north Canterbury. This is the sort of heavy rain that caused the 2000 floods in the Selwyn, Ashley, Temuka, Orari, Opihi, and Hurunui river. This is shaping up to be the wettest January on record and the weather is showing no signs of letting up. Rob

(I'm not certain why, but when news is written without the "a href" command to make it a hotlinkk, it appears as one, anyway!) Rob, you're right about nurses. You're right about health minister (or any bureaucrat for that matter deciding health matters) Understand about the nurses being overworked and underpaid. They have been ever thus and teachers have been, too. Hospitals are necessary Looking at the weather in Wellington, it does not look promising! It is odd to watch your weather on Sunday while I am living in my weather on Saturday, and it looks like about the same time of day! Time warp can engage the mind for a while between putts and downpours. We have not discussed the disaster preparations for floods. Food caches are probably destroyed by them but you always need fresh drinking and cooking water. Especially in flood conditions. Hang in there, Rob!!! I'll be checking your weather on your favorite NZ website. *Hugs*

Geohazard links - for New Zealand and the world at large - there may be a map hiding in one of these links: http://gis.eng.upm.edu.my/gisat/disaster_link.html http://search-intl.netscape.com/Science/Earth_Sciences/Geology/Organizations/Government_Geological_Surveys/Oceania

The latest issue of HazardWatch is now online. http://www.hazardwatch.co.nz Media release: Big quakes of 2001 too deep or too distant to cause damage http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/release/eq.htm We also have some new content online outlining our research in Antarctica. http://www.gns.cri.nz/earthhist/antarctica/index.html Antarctica was a part of Gondwanaland adjacent to New Zealand prior to 80 million years ago, and its geological structure and evolution is of special interest to NZ geologists. Our research at GNS concentrates on understanding Antarctic ice sheet behaviour, the evolution, origin and structure of the Transantarctic Mountains, and the associated evolution of the Ross Sea sedimentary basins. http://www.gns.cri.nz/earthhist/antarctica/andrill.htm ANDRILL programme Antarctica is a major driver of oceanic and atmospheric conditions worldwide, yet its role on modulating global climate is poorly understood. A major drilling programme, ANDRILL, is proposed to significantly improve the understanding of ice sheet behaviour and sea ice dynamics over the past 35 million years, and their influence on the New Zealand region. http://www.gns.cri.nz/earthhist/antarctica/trans.htm The Transantarctic Mountains trend for 4000 km across Antarctica, reach elevations of over 4 km, and form one of the world's major rift flank mountain chains. The mountains lie along the western border the West Antarctic Rift System, which is thought to have formed during extensional rifting events related to continental breakup. Rifting of lithosphere is a fundamental process in the development of continents and their margins.

Rob, note the side links on the left. http://www.gns.cri.nz/earthact/nz_geology/index.html I think this source is as close to what we are looking for that is currently available on the Internet.

Hi all Flooding has occurred in several parts of Canterbury as a result of the heavy rain on Saturday night. Akaroa and Kowai were the areas worst hit after flooding and slips cut access. http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1067124a1561,FF.html Rob

oh Rob, this does not sound promsing. Please be careful. Are you safe from the inundations? No wonder your lawn is so beautifully green and healthy! Greece continues to be frigid. The weather maps look unpromising for later in the week.

Hi all Even 3 days after the rain stopped, the rivers are still dirtied and many roads and bridges remain cut off through out inland Canterbury. The only access to Lees Valley was cut by flooding, Coes ford on the lower Selwyn is still closed, the Orari River bridge is open after the river destroyed one end of the bridge and the approaches. For more go here. http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1070799a1934,FF.html Rob

I read your like article and looked at the standing water in the fields. What a mess! Between farmers of Eastern Europe being frozen out of business and your being flooded out, I wonder where fresh vegetatbles, friut and nuts will come from. *sigh* Please don't suggest that we farm Mars or the Moon. We can't keep production going down here! I wonder how much of my annual consumption of fresh vegetables I could grow in the yard. Bananas get tiresome, even when they are as versatile as ours are.

How good is NZ drainage? How long will the water be standing and breeding mosquitoes? This island is very porous - especially on the Hilo side since our substrate is so new. We don't even make decent mud. On Oahu, where Honolulu exists, an inch of rain is a traffic-stopping event. More than that and they're pumping water out of basements. On an island, it is a delicate balance between too much and too little of anything!

Hi all New Zealand drainage is quite good and in the west where the heaviest rains fall the soils are designed to cope with the rainfall, and support vegetation that thrives on moisture. Milford Sound and parts of the West Coast get in excess of 6600mm per annum and may get up to 1000mm in as little as 3-4 days. That sort of rainfall is not an everyday event but an upper limit to the variation in rainfall. Which is why after a drought event I am not worried if there is a stand alone event where 250 millimetres of rain falls in a large river catchment - it can stand up to that. It is when say you get an average of 30-40 millimetres a day for 3-4 weeks saturating the catchment and THEN get 250 millimetres in a day. The Waimakariri River on average has a flow of 1500 cumecs once a year, 2300 cumecs every ten years and 4000 cumecs once every 100 years. But don't follow averages, because weather patterns produce rain whenever the conditions exist, be it ten times annually or a hundred times annually. In the case of recent where the rivers of Canterbury, West Coast and probably the Clutha, Waiau, Oreti and Mataura rivers in Otago and Southland, were in flood the weather was not the entire cause of the flooding. Sure it generated the rain, but the rain generation had assistance from the Australian bushfires which generated a lot of very fine dust that served as nuclei for the moisture and why in part so many thunderstorms rolled through Canterbury so quickly. It is also in part because the weather is inbetween the end of the La Nina patterns and the possible onset of an El Nino. Rob

Hmmm cumecs and milliliters... Your colony has gone metric. UK and the US will be the last to do so. I am reliant on my handy little calculator to make sense of what you have written. It must be very convenient to be bi-measuring, not to mention wearing a necktie which converts �F to �C and back again, as one Geophite does. In any case, that is a LOT of water on a given acreage, and for a one-time event, not more than can be absorbed. I had not considered the amount of condension nuclei which had accumulated due to the Australian Bush Fires. That makes a vast difference. Out here, either we make our own weather, or we wait for the few yearly systems to dump on us. I much prefer our daily system to provide the landscape with moisture.

Hi all Another thunderstorm yesterday with more rain and more filthy rivers (no break out - but a small flood wave came down the Selwyn after heavy rain yesterday afternoon). Christchurch has had 110mm of 46mm in an average January to date with more coming. Ummm....... where is Summer, where is the glorious Northwesterly and where is the sunshine? Rob

Me again And here is the article that goes with this: http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1073268a1561.FF,html Rob

The latest HazardWatch is now online: http://www.hazardwatch.co.nz Interested in Landslides? GNS is hosting a Landslides Research workshop in Auckland between the 3rd and 5th of May. The purpose of the workshop is to bring together some of the key landslide workers in New Zealand to discuss current and future landslide research and the setting up of a rapid response system for significant landslides in New Zealand. Find out more here: http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/conferences/lanzlides/lanzlides.html

Hi all On January 17 a severe downpour hit Dunedin dropping 15mm of rain. Initially the intensity was not known, but it has been established that about 5.45PM that day an intense rain storm hit Dunedin. It caused rockfalls on the Otago Peninsula and flooded businesses in the Dunedin central business district. http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1096820a3845,FF.html Rob

Oh dear! It only happens occasionally here that businesses are flooded. Your copious amount of rain is preparing for that conference on landslips!

Hi all A heavy rain warning has been issued for the Southern Alps, and Westland from 1.PM today New Zealand time (8 hours old at time of posting this). This is because a front is in the Tasman Sea proceeded by Northwesters and and a cooler Southwesterly behind it. 120-170mm of rain is expected and there may be rainfall of up to 25mm an hour as thunderstorms are forecasted for the mountains and West Coast plains. Rob

Keep that weather in Fijordland and the Southern Alps and far away from Cricket (set to begin in less than 4 hours.) The odd shower is more likely for Aukland. I am eager to share this last of the New Zealand - England One Day series. Go Kiwis!!!

Storm hits Big Island with fury By Hunter Bishop/ Tribune-Herald With more than 24 inches of rain unofficially recorded in Ahualoa in the past four days, Puaaona Road flooded and was impassable Tuesday for the first time in at least 10 years, said a resident. Residents of 14 homes were stranded, said Robin Smith, a physical therapist who couldn't get to her Kona job Tuesday. "I don't know about tomorrow," she said. "It started raining Saturday night," said Smith, and that's when she began measuring the precipitation. When she got home from work at 6 p.m. Monday, 6 to 8 inches of water was moving through the "usually dry" stream bed which bisects the dead - end road to her home. When Smith awoke Tuesday morning, she said 6 feet of water was moving over the road in "a roaring, raging torrent." Nearby Kapuna Road in Ahualoa was also flooded and impassable. Slightly more than 3 inches of rain had fallen at Hilo airport in a 24 - hour period ending 6:53 a.m. Tuesday but the northeast part of the island was getting hit much harder. Tuesday's storm dropped its most significant amounts of rain in Waimea and Honokaa. Nearly 8 inches of rain fell in the upper Kamuela area in the 24 hours ending 8 a.m. Tuesday. More than 6.3 inches of rain was recorded during the same period in Honokaa, according to the National Weather Service. In Waimea's Lakeland subdivision, homes on Makaloa Loop suffered some flood water damage but the extent was not yet known, said Hawaii County Civil Defense officials, whose crews were assessing the situation Tuesday. Police reported "severe ponding" from Lakeland to Church Row in Waimea. In Puna's Orchidland subdivision, Pohaku and 30th through 39th streets were closed Tuesday, and in Hilo, a portion of East Kawailani Street was also closed Tuesday, all due to the heavy rains and flooding. Landslides caused several delays for motorists on Highway 19 Tuesday along the Hamakua Coast as debris blocked lanes. Honolii Beach Park also was closed Tuesday due to the heavy flow of flood waters from Honolii Stream. Lightning and wind - blown debris caused scattered electrical outages in Puna, parts of Kona and Hilo, said HELCO spokesman Jay Ignacio. Problems started occurring with lightning shortly after 10 p.m. Monday. "Most (outages) were short in duration - lightning strikes - and we were able to get the circuits back up quickly," Ignacio said. "In other cases the lightning did some damage," he said, affecting isolated pockets of one to 10 customers, some of whom were still without power Tuesday afternoon. Snow fell on the summit of Mauna Kea to below the 8,000 - foot level, said Ron Koehler, director of Mauna Kea Support Services. Mauna Kea Road is closed two miles below Hale Pohaku, which is at the 9,200 - foot level where 6 inches of snow covered the ground Tuesday afternoon. Conditions were improving and the winter storm warning for the upper slopes of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa was canceled Tuesday, but the road is expected to remain closed today and Thursday, Koehler said. A couple of Hilo radio stations also were knocked off the air by the storm Tuesday morning. All but KAPA 100.3 FM were back on the air by the afternoon, said station manager Buddy Gordon, and he expected to have KAPA back on the air later Tuesday as soon as a new transmitter could be installed. Delivery of the Tribune - Herald was delayed Tuesday morning in some areas due to the weather, and booming thunder overnight in Hilo caused at least one car alarm to activate. A flash flood watch was still in effect Tuesday for North, East, and South Hawaii. A flash flood warning, the more urgent level of notice, was lifted Tuesday morning. http://www.hilohawaiitribune.com/daily/2002/Feb-27-Wed-2002/news/news2.html

Are you all right, Marcia?

Yes, thanks! I am quite safe. My house is built on a concrete slab which is riding on 20 feet of fill. This side of the island is very new, geologically, so we seldom even get mud. Only those foolish enough to build on low areas of town have flooding during rains like this. Actually, the tsunami managed to move most of the houses out of the flat areas near sea level. So, most of what flooded were soccer fields. In Kona it was a different story. They are not prone to tsunami or storm dangers so their homes are built right on the water. THEY had the flooding, this time. Most storms do not make it over the mountains, but this one did.

Hi all Better watch the water level in Hilo all the same. Don't want the water suddenly retreating and coming back as a 10 metre high tsunami. Remember the clock that shows the time the tsunami hit in May 1960, and the soccerfields? They will get flooded again, either from a deluge or a wave roaring of the Pacific Ocean. Rob

That tsunami clock is still there, still an awful shade of apple green and still stopped at the hour the tsunami hit Hilo. You can bet no one in Hawaii is ever going to dash into the newly-emptied bay to catch the stranded fish for dinner they never lived to eat. I seldom turn my back on the sea. I have a deep uneasiness about its strenth inside me. I've nearly drowned by being crushed to the bottom of the Atlantic shore when I was a child. That panic of not knowing which way is up and when the next breath of air is coming is a terror which never goes away. For that reason, I will be glad if one day I leave Hawaii permanently! I'll miss having an eruption to watch, but I will not miss the dangers all around this "paradise."

Hi all I guess tsunami are just one more thing to add to our list of disasters now due. We have not been tested by a real tsunami since the 1960 earthquake of the Chilean coast, but I confess to not knowing about the tsunami of Good Friday 1964, in Alaskan waters. Does Marcia want to join me behind the as yet relatively untried stop banks protecting Christchurch from the Waimakariri River, on whose vast floodplain we sit? Rob

Marcia would rather spirit you away to her home at a safe distance from the shore and part way up the mountain. I would love to see a tsunami happen - but ONLY from a safe vantage point and ONLY if no one gets hurt. They must be incredible. Rob, now I am even more worried about you!

one happened in Alaska? ok, some explaining please----tsunamis are the result of oceanic earthquakes?

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NO. 001 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 2141Z 05 MAR 2002 THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC BASIN EXCEPT CALIFORNIA, OREGON, WASHINGTON, BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND ALASKA. . . THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION MESSAGE, NO ACTION REQUIRED . . AN EARTHQUAKE, PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 6.8, OCCURRED AT 2116 UTC 5 MAR 2002, LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.1N, LONGITUDE 124.0E IN THE VICINITY OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS EVALUATION: NO DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS. HOWEVER, SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. . . . NO PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT . . . RECIPIENTS OF THIS MESSAGE LOCATED IN CALIFORNIA, OREGON, WASHINGTON, BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER ONLY TO WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ANY TSUNAMI THREAT IN THOSE AREAS. STOP

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!

marcia, log into MSN (pleeeeeeeezzzzzeeee)

I'm OK Sweetie. Tsunamis can be generated by local STRONG earthquakes (our 6.7 EQ caused a small but lethal tsunami on this island killing our best surgeon and a few Boy Scouts camping out in a remote but vulnerable area.) The Good Friday EQ ravaged Anchorage and created a 9-foot tsunami in Hawaii. The tsumnamis in Alaska (Valdez in particular) were devastating. Our greatest tsunamis in the 20th century were caused by earthquakes in the Aleutians and offshore Chile (1946, and 1960.) Any sort of earthquake which is strong enough to cause the deformation of the earth under the sea can cause a tsunami. Fill a bucket with water (the sea) Kick the bucket (not figuratively - the earthquake) and see what the water does. Landslides can also cause tsunamis - as in the one predicted if the side of Kilauea falls into the sea. Locally they are estimated to be several hundred meters high ( >500 feet) and about half that around the Pacific. This is not something I want to witness!

earthquakes can also cause landslides.....what a connection! i didn't know landslides could cause tsunamis....now i know!

Simple landslides can't do it. Half of a mountain falling into the sea will cause a tsunami and register on seismographs world-wide, but technically, they are not earthquakes, unless the cause of the failure of the mountain structure is seismic in nature. Actually, most planetary events are interconnected. We are just beginning to discover how the dynamics of this lively planet on which we live really work.

Hi all March 21, 2001 A cold wind blew up the valley, as a lone policeman gingerly makes his way through the cold night air to a pole with a steel bin dug deep into the ground, high on a ridge overlooking a valley. He opens the lid on the steel drum which houses a seismograph and geophone system hooked to the Orting Police Station, some 35 miles downstream. All is normal. Down the verdantly beautiful valley with douglas firs and pines draining the slopes of Rainier, flows a river cutting through the forest in a gorgeous glacial blue ribbon. It discharges into a wider valley downstream and flows across the plains before entering the sea near Seattle. As dawn breaks over the Puyallup River, seismograph needle wobbles on a machine at the Orting police station before reverting back to a normal straight line. It has picked up a small flood originating from the the glacier system that mantles the 14,410 foot high volcano. Nothing to worry about. But three days later, something more sinister emerges. A volcanologist goes up to Rainier and checks the vents temperature as well as a report of a steam vent on the lip of the crater. The police and chiefs call a meeting with the mayor of the town. They decide to keep watch on the volcano and make an announcement if things worsen. For the next couple days a 24 hour vigil is kept on the seismographs and warnings are posted for climbers to avoid the glaciers and crater lip of Rainier. March 25 Two climbers approaching the summit feel an earthquake. Although high on the mountain, they opt to descend incase of more earthquakes. They descend to the carpark and one of them calls the police. Aware of the mountain's volatile history and reputation, they are worried about it being the opening note of an overture that no one wants to hear. That night an announcement is made to the people of Orting about the earthquake and a small flood four days ago. The media largely ignore it wholly unaware of the importance of the small flood and the earthquake. Another earthquake rocks the volcano that night loosening up rock and allowing magma to enter the cracks. It's presence as scribbles on the seismograph reading the following morning turn's the gut of the police chief ice cold. Something is wrong. Another meeting is hold, this time involving the county sheriff, his deputy, the State Governor, the fire chief and the local representative of the Federal Emergency Management Authority. More small earthquakes rock the mountain, and small rock slides distort the reading on the seismograph. The people are starting to feel the tremors and the media is interested. Not wanting to create an atmosphere of panic, the Governor calls for calm, assuring the people that the warning system will provide enough time for an evacuation in the worst case. To reassure them further, a test is run on the sirens to check they are working. The result is reassuring. The sirens are working and are being heard clearly. Night fell on March 27 as the town of Orting watched the local news for information, on the unfolding crisis. They were scared. For years the people had been educated on the huge lahar deposits 500ft deep that blanketed the valley floor. At school the following day teachers began teaching the students what to do if the warning to evacuate was given. The students were frightened. Most did not know what a volcano was and the thought of the only home they knew being swallowed by a huge lahar scared them. It scared their teachers that they now had to teach something they had hoped would not be needed. It scared the authorities who knew that a false alarm would destroy their credibility and that not warning the people in time would also destroy their standing. It scared the geologists who were watching the volcano and the State Governor despite her interest in volcanology. Geologists began speculating on the possible causes of a lahar. Could it be a volcanic eruption melting the glaciers? Could it be an earthquake loosening weakened rock and ash, thus mixing it with the water from the glacier? People were warned about straying into the valleys and climbers were told to stick to the ridges on the east flank if they had to climb. Dawn came at 7.00AM on March 28 and was accompanied by the wailing of a siren. A disused and derilict house down the road had been torched. It was just the Fire Brigade. Two climbers on their way to the east flank of Rainier had reported a man running away. They had spoken to police about the fire. Near the mountain a sheriff asked them where they were going. After checking their permit, he let them pass. High up on the flank of Rainier at Sunset Amphitheatre, a huge gash where a segment of the volcano had cascaded down the valley in a huge avalanche, the volcano was cracking and crumbling. Mount Rainier would not hold on much longer. Earthquake activity was steady but the magma was almost to the point where the flank of the volcano would simply fall to bits - and unleash a lahar. An eruption could do it. But the Sunset Amphitheatre collapse was not caused by volcanic activity. Maybe the volcano fell apart. No one knew. About 2.20PM the volcano began to crumble. Something sinister was at work. The magma was starting to melt the glacier and the rock underneath could no longer held it back. At this terrible moment a new player had entered the speculation game whose deadly climax was rapidly approaching. Chemical corrosion. The rock whose strength was greatly weakened and being warmed by the magma was crumbling fast. Glacier ice was melting and mixing with a growing slurry starting to move downhill. As it gathered pace it started moving boulders and ripping out alpine vegetation. Grinding and growling downhill the lahar began to take on monstrous dimensions, yanking out douglas firs and pines as it rushed down the valley sweeping all before it. No one had envisioned anything this bad and certainly not coming so soon. Sheriff Brian Moon was on duty when he noticed the seismograph needle began a wide swing across the paper - the signature of a monstrous volcanic evil now driving an entire forest before it, and measuring a full 400 ft high. "OH MY GOD!!! OH MY GOD!!!!" He grabbed his phone and dialled the emergency line to the fire chief. As soon as the FC answered, Moon yelled "LAHAR. EVACUATE!!!" He slammed down the phone and flew out the door. His deputy heard him yell and immediately tapped out a warning to all police stations in the surrounding counties before fleeing to the town centre warning system. Within 10 seconds he was gunning the car for the warning system in the centre of town. His heart was pounding, and his gut was ice cold. In all his 45 years he had never known true fear. Moon arrived at the warning system in a paddock mounted on a timber pole, at 55mph barely stopping before the pole. A second later he received word on his radio that his deputy had arrived at the town warning centre. He opened the box on the pole and flicked the switch. With tears streaming down his cheeks he leapt back into his vehicle and rushed to the nearest ridge some 2 miles away. A haunting siren filled the air. It stopped everyone cold. As the shock wore off panic set in. It was 2.45PM as the students of Orting Elementary began to file out of a special assembly called for to warn them about the very thing that was rushing toward them at that very minute, though none of them had any idea that their town had only 30 minutes to live. They were just settling down when the siren sounded. No one moved. Then the teachers realised that the lahar no one wanted to know about was coming. "EVERYONE ON THE BUSES. NOW!!! THEY WILL GO TO THE NISQUALLY RIDGE!!!" By now, 3.00PM the lahar was thundering down the gorge like hundreds of freight trains and stripping the slopes of their vegetation and the soil down to the bedrock. Never in the history of modern had one seen such a gut wrenching natural sight rolling over around and through everything in it's way. It carried houses, rocks, trees, bridges and it was all descending upon Orting with a violence indescribable and wholly unforgettable. The climbers had heard a huge roar, but it was too late for them to do anything. The last thing they saw was a huge wall of debris leap over the low ridge in front of them and engulf their car. The town emptied in 30 minutes and 10 minutes later, the most heart rending sight came into view for those watching the horrible spectacle from the ridges on each side of the valley. The flow swept over around and through the village sparing nothing. In only ten minutes the town vanished from the map, its citizens having seen something of unparalleled horror. The town, swallowed alive by the same mechanism that had formed the soils on which it sat. Orting 1905-2001. Rest in Peace Rob

Hi all The above story was based on a huge lahar from Rainier that poured down the Osceola River several thousand years ago and which I understand flowed as far as Puget Sound and Seattle. The Rainier complex has collapsed many times. Not all of the events were related to volcanic activity. Some may have been caused by heated melt water migrating through the volcano and altering the chemistry of the rocks, thus turning them into a very weak mass with not much strength. The most recent of the lahars that Orting is built on was not a result of volcanism according to geologists, but a result of the above process. Rob

You're right Rob! Excellent scenario and very realistic accounting. They conduct evacuation drills for the entire city on a regular basis

Hi all And scary. I will post a map of the valley that Orting is in: http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/volcanoes/vorting_full.html Mudflow will come from the south-southeast. Both the Puyallup and Carbon Rivers drain from Rainier. Rob

Landslide likely key to ocean mystery UH scientists are trying to find the source of deep-sea deposits off Oahu Undersea seismometer 'going strong' scientist says By Helen Altonn haltonn@starbulletin.com Coarse sand and a volcanic layer that appears explosive in origin are puzzling discoveries of a deep-sea drilling program conducted northeast of Oahu for University of Hawaii scientists. Gregory Moore and Michael Garcia, geology and geophysics professors, are trying to figure out where the explosive volcanic rocks and sand deposits could have come from. Deep ocean sands usually are found only close to an island or coastline, and these are more than 186 miles from Oahu, Garcia said, explaining it would take a big event to transport them so far. The source of the explosive volcanic rocks also is a big question, he said. Some people on the drill ship JOIDES Resolution believed the volcanic layer came from Oahu and was hot, he said. "Getting something that far, hot, through the ocean is an unusual event," he said. "It supposedly baked the underlying sediment and still had boiling water within it by the time it was put in place." Some suggested that the source of the volcanic material was closer to where it was found in the ocean, Garcia said. Others speculated the deposits occurred in a phenomenon similar to Mount St. Helens, when a landslide took off the top of that volcano and exposed the magma chamber, leading to an explosive eruption, he said. The UH scientists have been studying giant landslides around the islands for several years, particularly the catastrophic Nuuanu landslide that removed about 40 percent of the Windward side of Oahu more than a million years ago. Sarah Sherman, postdoctoral researcher in geology and geophysics who works with Garcia, participated in the drill project aboard the JOIDES Resolution. She said the sediment was expected to be about 330 feet deep, based on seismic data, but the drill hit rock at about 42 feet. The hole was drilled about 138 feet deep. Sherman returned with samples of different types of rocks that, she said, "tell us it's more complicated than what we thought." Preliminary data on glass from the 42-foot level indicate it has chemistry like Hawaiian lavas, she said. "Some of the glasses (in the volcanic rocks) looked like Koolau glass," she said. That is exciting, she said, because all the samples have low sulfur content, suggesting they were "degassed" and erupted from land, not in the ocean. Scientists are interested in the Nuuanu landslide because it may have generated enormous tsunamis that reached the West Coast. One question is whether it was one colossal event or a succession of collapses. Learning more about what happened may help predict the next event, Garcia said. The UH scientists previously used ships and deep-submergence subs from the Japan Marine Science and Technology Center to investigate the Nuuanu landslide. They said they learned a lot because the Japanese have the ability to map the ocean floor, still poorly known around Hawaii. They even discovered a volcano related to the Hawaiian chain about 46 miles off Waianae, Garcia said. "It seems to be very young, based on a lack of sediments," Moore said, estimating it is less than 1 million years old. "Size-wise, it is about the same size as Koolau or Waianae volcanoes. It's a big feature." It rises about 3,300 feet from the sea floor and is about 13,200 feet from the ocean surface, he said. These discoveries aside, the researchers were frustrated that they could not get beneath the Nuuanu landslide deposits. They sent a proposal to the Ocean Drilling Program to drill a hole through the deposits, and the project was added to a cruise scheduled by the JOIDES Resolution in this area after Christmas. Garcia said a layer was found beneath the deposits that the ship's scientists initially called a lava flow but was eventually found to be explosive in origin. The scientists said they have learned in the last 10 years that eruptions related to the Hawaiian hot spot occur far out on flanks of the islands, as well as on the islands. A volcanic field, called North Arch Volcanics, was discovered extending from about 62 miles north of Kahuku to about 136 miles in the center, Garcia said. "It is truly enormous," he said, "with little cones and fissures like those seen on Kilauea. ... We didn't expect such deposits from the North Arch fields because these are lava flows, whereas the deposits they found in the cores are explosive in origin." If they were explosive eruptions, he said, "that would be a new discovery, and if they (deposits) came from Oahu, that would be a frightening discovery in the sense that such a big event occurred." Moore said, "The other part of this volcano story is, you wouldn't expect to find an explosive volcano at that water depth (16,500 feet)." Garcia added: "We're waiting for proof to come in. That part about having it happen on Oahu and getting it that far while it's still hot, that's the part that's troublesome."

Hi all I might ask that the account of the Orting lahar be posted in Global Volcanism. That is one of my best pieces of work to date. Later on I may post a scenario for the onset of a caldera eruption at Taupo or possibly a scenario about living in the shadow of a lava dome. Rob

Please do! I borrowed your Krakatoa scenario story for Geo. I can do it or you can copy and paste it to World Volcanology. Let me know if you wish for me to do this!

Hi all That would be good. I would appreciate it being put in the World Volcanism group. Rob

OK will do. But you surely need to do this so it doesn't look like you can't copy and paste your own text. I'll tell them you are busy studying which is the honest truth! Take care, Rob. *HUGS*

Tis done, Rob. Take another bow!

Hi all Check the Waimakariri River Webcam when you get up tomorrow morning and at two to three hour intervals through out the day because 130mm of rain (5.2 inches for those not converted to metrics)fell today in Arthurs Pass and it was still raining at 6.PM (8.15PM at the time of typing this)and 332mm (13 inches)has fallen in the last five days. NOTE: Although you might think you are looking at an estuary, this is a classic braided river. But because of all the rain the channels will merge as long large dirty mass of brown water with maybe the odd island. http:www.niwa.cri.nz/services/cam-era/sites/waimaka/ IN A BIG FLOOD, EVERYTHING BETWEEN THE TREES ON THE LEFT AND THE BANK ON THE RIGHT (TOP RIGHT CORNER)WILL BE UNDER WATER COLOURED A UNIFORM BROWN. IN A FLOOD CAUSING CONCERN, THE RIVER WILL BE INTO THE TREES AND UP TO THE STOPBANKS (NOT VISIBLE IN THIS IMAGE). Rob

Me again Sorry. THAT SHOULD BE http://www.niwa.cri.nz/services/cam-era/sites/waimaka Rob

I have it bookmarked http://www.niwa.cri.nz/services/cam-era/sites/waimakb/wbr_2002_03_21_15_01.jpg/view What does it normally look like? Lots of silt going on there!

check that out!

Hi all It is impressive isn't it? Note the river was falling already by that stage as the flood peak had passed, but it was running at 681 cubic metres per second at Midday. In full flood it might attain a flow of 4000 cubic metres per second which is a damn sight bigger than this... Rob

It is a relief to see the water levels lowering. I cannot imagine this lovely draided river with 7-8 times as much water in it. I am assuming no one is ignorant enough to live in this flood plain!

HYDROLOGY * Lost European Delta Predicts the Future of Modern-Day Rivers References 1. http://www.sciquest.com/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/ExecMacro/sci_level3.d2w/report?nav_banner=bio&resource=articles&gateway=S-hydrol

Hi all With the expected onset of an El Nino event soon, the likelihood of there being more of these floods has increased, since the northwesterlies are expected to be more frequent and last longer which also means higher temperatures in summer. Rob

Hi all But remembering the worst case scenario involves a depression in the Tasman unloading say 300mm of rain from the southeast then as the depression passes over, a northwester unloading a similar amount. Since the Waimakariri will collect substantial rain from both directions the risk of a severe flood is real. Rob

Good grief, Rob!!! Please don ot flood the beautiful Avon again. That is too horrific to imagine! flood control ditches worh, in theory. Pleae be away then they are tested in real time!

Hi all Heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings in force for the Southern Alps: SEVERE WEATHER WARNING ISSUED BY MetService AT 10:50 am 29-Mar-2002 {MEDIA} HEAVY RAIN IN THE FIORDLAND AND WESTLAND MOUNTAINS MetService forecasters expect heavy rain at times in the mountains of Fiordland and Westland over the next 24 to 30 hours as a front moves over the area followed by bursts of heavy showers and thunderstorms. In the Fiordland mountains up to 100mm may fall in the 24 hours from 10am today while in the Westland mountains up to 150mm is possible in the 24 hours from about 6pm today. Trampers and other users of the high country areas should be prepared. In Otago and Canterbury, rain spilling over the divide may raise levels of rivers with their headwaters near the main Divide. Rob

Trampers....? I am guessing that no one hikes in New Zealand? Please be careful. Summer is fast fading from your climate.

Hi all Trampers/Hikers? Same thing. They go on walks carrying their own supplies usually in high country areas that last more than 1 night. Day trippers are there for a day intending to be somewhere else by the days end. Rob

trampers! *laugh* i like what you guys call 'em....

Hi all No hydro hazards where I am going unless there is a microburst in the Cass basin. The nearest big river is the Waimakariri into which all basin rivers drain. Cass has a small river called the Cass River nearby but it is not in a position to threaten us. Rob

We had a monster rain with thunder and lightning last night but no flooding, but the area is now saturated and primed if we should get another rainstorm. We had a two hour power outage last night. This is in the Bastrop, Texas area.

I've been watching for Bastrop County for the severe weather warnings. You have managed to avoid tornadoes and various flood warnings. They have been just about continuous and I remember prior years when you were really under water. Be careful, Terry! Unplug to be safe.

I have tyhe sweetest little power supply / surge protector on my computer. It stores a minute of power so I can save what I am doing and close out safely. I absolutely love it MBK 300 http://www.pcconnection.com/scripts/productdetail.asp?product_id=101787

just learned about a tornado that passed through Plain Dealing LA, just a few miles from where i used to live *yikes* will have to check with my cajun buddies tomorrow.

(i've got an UPS too)

Love The UPS - I just discovered mine is good for 15 minutes or longer. I thought it was for only a minute becuase it starts to chirp at me after I have been working on it for that long. I think we need to pass the calabash and get one for John. He has had such a difficult winter with all that uncharacteristic snow and the power lines being assaulted by snow and ice and high winds. I was talking to a lady in Missouri and asked about the tornadoes there. She said the sky was very dark and ominous but nothing had happened. It seems like Spring is coming in like a Lion, indeed!

Floods in Greece Deputy Agriculture Minister Fotis Hadzimichalis, visiting the flooded plains of Trikala yesterday following Thursday's torrential rainfall, said the government would do its best to compensate farmers for losses incurred due to the floods. http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_politics_100020_20/04/2002_15646

Hi all Some westerly rain fell in the mountains today and yesterday, but it is not expected to cause flooding or any other dramatics. However, the weather phenomena El Nino is expected to arrive in June or July and that will mean an increase in the rainfall from the west on the West Coast, while eastern areas should be drier. Rob

The Northeastern United States is in severe drought conditions. This is a great worry. Now is when the rain should be replenishing the watersheds and it simply is not happening. Some reservoirs are 10 or more feet down in depth. the wild fires in Colorado are just the beginning of a very precarious summer. Perhaps the lack of floods and other hydrohazards is equally damaging.