Three "must read" articles.
http://www.thefridaytimes.com
Najam Sethi, in his weekly editorial:
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As India ferries its tanks and missiles to the border to "teach Pakistan
a lesson" for "meddling in Kashmir", it might sensibly pause to consider
its error. One nuclear power can�t possibly teach another nuclear power
any
lessons through war. Nor can it rest assured that its military
intervention will have limited objectives. Escalation is inevitable when
each side is able and willing to hit back, as both India and Pakistan
discovered to their mutual discomfort in the Kargil conflict.
Equally, Pakistan�s old strategic doctrine of supporting proxy wars in
India�s periphery, especially through an Islamic jehad in Kashmir, so
that
the conventional military balance is restored to more manageable
proportions, is out of sync with recent realities. In particular, the
post
9/11 world sees Islamic jehad as pure terrorism that must be stamped out
everywhere.
Then, Khaled Ahmed, who has just been thunderous in his critique of
Pakistan government policy the last month or so:
Extremism and shariat: One reason Talibanisation spread in Pakistan was
the
identity between what Mulla Umar wanted to enforce in Afghanistan and
that
which the ideological state of Pakistan wants to enforce as shariat
. There
is a general misconception in Pakistan that the Taliban actually put
forward a vision of Islam which was alien to Pakistan. The truth of the
matter is that the Taliban vision was alien to Afghanistan and was
exported
to it from Pakistan. The department of Amr bil Maruf , responsible for
most
of the extreme measures taken in Afghanistan, was actually proposed by
the
PML government of Nawaz Sharif in its 15th Amendment. The only difference
is that Mulla Umar went ahead and implemented what the Pakistani state
was
first in contemplating. The Council of Islamic Ideology in Pakistan has
been recommending institutional reform - for instance the
inquisition-like
office of Hisba - that would 'complete' the ideological state.
And finally an intricately argued piece by Ejaz Haider on the dynamics
of the India/Pakistan conflict and the status of Kashmir:
There is need therefore for India to give General Pervez Musharraf the
room
to implement the rethought policy. The problem the general is facing just
now is the all- or nothing situation he is confronted with. That is a
problem inherent in any policy that has been allowed to run longer than
it
should have. Given India�s refusal to talk Kashmir, the issue before
Islamabad is whether Kashmir can be kept alive without its force-
multiplying role -- i.e., whether the Kashmiri groups themselves will be
able to sustain New Delhi�s repressive policies and allow Pakistan to
play
a purely political role. This is especially important if India continues
to
deny that Kashmir is a dispute.
Nicholas Kristof in the Friday NYT:
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The scariest aspect of the crisis between India and Pakistan today is not
the way troops are exchanging artillery fire along the snowy mountains of
Kashmir.
Rather, it is the way the escalations mimic war simulations held over the
years. Spooks and scholars have conducted many mock conflicts between the
two countries, with specialists playing the parts of leaders on each
side.
Very frequently the result is nuclear war.
In conversations with experts, including those who launched nuclear
strikes
in these war games, the precariousness of the South Asian nuclear balance
is clear. Paradoxically, the tiny number of nuclear weapons on each side
creates instability and an incentive to launch a first strike -- use your
arsenal or lose it.
Now, I don't really think that another war will erupt between India and
Pakistan, or that if it does it will go nuclear. Essentially what is
happening is that the Indian government is huffing and bluffing, both for
domestic political gain and to scare Pakistan into making concessions. As
Stephen P. Cohen, an American scholar, puts it: "The Indians are
escalating
the crisis to an international level. They see this as a good opportunity
to press Pakistan."
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/28/opinion/28KRIS.html